When it comes to sports betting, there is a misconception that you can be particularly successful by betting on favorites. But betting on teams like FC Bayern Munich or FC Barcelona is a losing proposition in the long run. Firstly, the low prices mean that there are only small winnings. In addition, one or two defeats per season are enough to end up in a mathematical deficit if you place the same bets on the top teams every week.
In addition, the meager profits from betting on favorites have been reduced by most bookmakers for several years due to the betting tax. Every successful sports bettor largely ignores the big favorites. If you still decide to use this sports betting strategy, make sure you choose a provider that doesn’t charge betting tax! The odds offered have no connection with the profit potential.
Live betting
At first glance, live betting seems exciting, appealing and gives you a special kick. But you can’t earn a lot of money here. The payout ratio for live betting rarely exceeds 90 percent. Nevertheless, live betting is very popular with large betting providers like bet365. In addition, you often have to make decisions within a few seconds, which leads to mistakes.
Value bets
Every bookmaker uses odds to determine the probability of the outcome of a particular sporting event. The less likely the outcome is to occur, the higher the corresponding odds. Despite thorough research, there is still a subjective component with the bookmakers. If the bookmaker underestimates a probability, the odds offered are too high. For special sporting events, the bettor also makes a probability assessment based on well-prepared previews. If your own probability assessment is higher than that of the bookmaker, you have discovered a value bet for yourself.
A value bet is a bet in which the bookmaker underestimates the probability of a certain result (home win, draw, away win). The odds offered are therefore too high and higher than the probability of the match result. However, the amount of the quota is irrelevant.
Example of a Value Bet
A value bet can be calculated using the following formula: Value (=value) = (odds * probability in % / 100) > 1
The bettor assumes that Team A will win the game against Team B with a probability of 90%. The bookmaker’s odds (e.g. on Team A: 1.125) must be multiplied by the expected probability (90%) and then divided by 100. If the value is greater than 1, it is a value bet.
However, with value bets, it must be remembered that these are personal and subjective assessments of the bettor’s probability. The subjective component can be minimized through good analysis and a lot of work with statistics. In order to determine value bets, a comparison of the odds of the various bookmakers can be extremely helpful. If you find significantly higher odds for a certain result compared to other bookmakers, there is a lot to suggest that it is a value bet. If you then only play value bets with small stakes over a longer period of time, you have a good chance of a consistent profit development and a very solid sports betting strategy that also requires work.
Surebets
As the name suggests, surebets are safe bets. Here you benefit from the different odds in the run-up to the events and also in live bets. The differences can arise from news, rumors and facts related to the betting event and are evaluated differently by the bookmakers. The customer receives a surebet if he finds a lower odds with one provider and gets the same or better odds for the other side with another provider.
Surebets require you to be registered with multiple bookmakers. An example of a surebet bet would be betting on a home team win, an away team win and a draw in a football match. If you have three odds, these are always the divisor. 1 is the dividend. The sum of these three quotients should end up being less than 1. The lower the better.
Example of a Surebet
The odds for a home win for Team A are 5.80. The odds for a draw are 3.90. The odds for an away win for Team B are 1.90.
Calculate: (1 : 5.80 = 0.172) + (1 : 3.90 = 0.256) + (1 : 1.90 = 0.526) = 0.954
For every 0.954 euros you bet, you get one euro back. Or vice versa: 1 : 0.954 = 1.048. This corresponds to an increase of 4.8 percent. For example, 0.954 can be represented as 95.40 euros. That makes 17.20 euros for a home win, 25.60 euros for a draw and 52.60 euros for an away win. No matter how the game ends, you always go home with a win. However, betting taxes are often not included in such examples.
Without an odds comparison service, finding instant surebets is extremely tedious and time-consuming. Many websites also offer a surebet finder or a surebet calculator. But beware: surebets are often only available for a short time. In addition, the stakes have to be relatively high to get any real benefit from surebets, which becomes difficult when bookmakers set stake limits per bet. Nevertheless, you should definitely add this sports betting strategy to your repertoire and use it at every good opportunity.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting refers to bets that generate guaranteed profits through natural price or odds fluctuations before and during the event. The term “arbitrage” originally comes from the world of finance. Like surebets, arbitrage betting is caused by fluctuations in odds based on news, rumors, opinions and facts related to the betting event. The betting markets and odds react to everything. The art lies in recognizing the development and trend of the market in advance.
The difference between arbitrage betting and surebets is that surebets become arbitrage betting when they actually come true. So if you bet on a player or team to win with your bookmaker at the beginning of the bet and then the odds move downwards, you can eventually lock in an attractive odds on the opposite bet and thus make a sure profit.